Diario de muir

Observations
I made an iNaturalist observation in every month of 2016, almost missing December but saved by a single observation of a chilly Autumn Meadowhawk that I saw with my local iNat buddy @carrieseltzer. In total, I posted 1,834 observations and 854 species (IDed as of this journal post). That's a slight increase from last year, but still down from 2012-2014. iNat has really grown since then! As an example, I topped the entire site's observation leaderboard in 2012 and my observations accounted for %0.02 of iNat's total. In 2016, in contrast, I am currently the #105th most prolific observer and my contributions are 0.001% of iNat's total observations. (Hooray for iNat's awesome growth and congrats to this year's leaders @reallifeecology @sambiology @finatic!)

Places
About 40% of my 2016 observations were from outside the United States, my highest level since I joined in 2011. I traveled to three new-to-me African countries: Morocco (71 observations, 49 species, 45 life list firsts), Uganda (167 observations, 107 species, 26 life list firsts), Rwanda (82 observations, 62 species, 12 life list firsts). I also traveled to DRC and Congo-Brazzaville, but to places that were new to me: Garamba (122 observations, 88 species, 25 life list firsts), Nouabale-Ndoki (262 observations, 100 species, 35 life list firsts) and Odzala (71 observations, 48 species, 10 life list firsts).

About 40% of my 2016 observations were from my DC area home range. Some of my regular favorites: Huntley Meadows, VA (104 observations, 76 species, 4 day trips), Occoquan NWR, VA (82 observations, 64 species, 2 day trips), Idylwild WMA, MD (117 observations, 80 species, 4 day trips), Jug Bay, MD (26 observations, 22 species, 2 day trips), Bombay Hook NWR, DE (46 observations, 38 species, 2 day trips), Chincoteague NWR, VA (36 observations, 30 species, 1 day trip), and Little Bennett State Park, MD (36 observations, 28 species, 2 day trips). Some new sites for me: Governor Bridge Natural Area, MD (39 observations, 33 species, 9 life list firsts); Lums Pond State Park, DE (15 observations, 15 species, 2 life list firsts), Long Branch Nature Center, VA (22 observations, 18 species, 4 life list firsts), Sky Meadows State Park, VA (41 observations, 35 species, 6 life list firsts), and Pokomoke River WMA, MD (17 observations, 15 species, 4 life list firsts).

Finally, I traveled to Austin, Texas in May (222 observations, 142 species, 78 life list firsts) and northern California in July (Big Sur to Truckee: 64 observations, 41 species, 23 life list firsts). In TX, I was fortunate enough to reconnect with @greglasley to re-visit Hornsby Bend, and then spend 3 days at McKinney Rough State Park at @jcabbott and @kendrakabbott 's amazing BugShot macro photography workshop.

Species
In no particular order, here are some of my favorite species photos that I took in 2016, most of them life list firsts:

I observed a small leaf beetle on the shores of Rwanda's Lake Ruhondo. Many thanks to @borisb for ID help on this observation, and many other beetle observations.

On the same walk, I also saw a Giant Carpenter Bee, tentatively IDed as Xylocopa flavorufa.

Thanks to @fungee , my stinkhorn fungus on the Uganda-DRC border was identified as Lysurus corallocephalus.

A wattled lapwing impressed in Queen Elizabeth NP, Uganda.
A funky planthopper in Congo, seen in May.
An Acraea chrysalis from the same area in Congo.
Mazuca dulcis and Delorhachis viridiplaga, two attractive moths in Congo and some of the few I managed to ID to species. Of the 140 Lepidoptera observations I documented in Bomassa, only 26 have so far been identified to the Family level or below.

Western gorillas in Congo's Odzala National Park and Mountain Gorillas in Volcanoes NP, Rwanda.

Moray eels for sale in the Essaouira fish market, Morocco.
In a sand dune in SE Morocco, I found a spider in the Cebrennus genus, possibly the "flic-flac" spider featured in the New York Times. My own video was not as impressive but @jakob like it anyway.

Closer to home, I was thrilled to see my first Gray Petaltail in June, and then I observed one decapitated by a European Hornet.
Texas beetles observed during BugShot: a clown weevil(Eudiagogus pulcher), Ironclad Beetle (Zopherus nodulosus ssp. haldemani), and a buprestid (Polycesta elata).

My first iNat observation of a virus turns a pillbug purple.

Finally, not a life list first, but a revelation: dancing penguins are a diagnostic field mark to distinguish Forest Tent Caterpillars from Eastern Tent Caterpillars.

People
In 2016, I had the good fortune to meet up IRL with @carrieseltzer @judygva @nhmordenana @loarie @kueda @sapito @katja @greglasley @jcabbott @kendrakabbott @briangratwicke @naturelady @congonaturalist @mattluizza @stsang @katzyna @maryeford @alexshepard @joelle @jackcamino and of course @aamuir who deserves credit for spotting most of the things we saw together. And a huge THANK YOU to @jakob @greglasley @aguilita @borisb @john8 @kevinhintsa @nlblock @maractwin @johnnybirder and @gcwarbler who were the top 10 identifiers to my observations. And another thank you to @joelle who (I think) was behind my favorite new thing about iNat in 2016 -- the revamped Observations page. Happy New Year everybody!

2017 Goals

• SE Arizona, August w/ @finatic @jaykeller et al
• Sumatra
• Central African Republic
• Dolly Sods Wilderness, WV
• Ophiogomphus, Lanthus vernalis, more new odes
• Learning a new way to contribute to iNat

Is anyone else interested in going? Meeting will be held in Staunton VA with field trips to a sinkhole complex at the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains and sites within the George Washington National Forest. There's also a 2-day pre-meeting trip from Richmond to Staunton, and a post-meeting trip to higher ground near the WV border. I believe @pbedell is one of the organizers.

I've never been to a DSA meeting before, so I don't really know what to expect, but I'm interested in the talks and field trips before and during meeting (I'm less likely able to participate in the post-meeting field trip). I will likely have seats available in the car if people are interested in carpooling from DC area.

https://sites.google.com/a/udel.edu/dragonfly-society-of-the-americas---2017-meeting/home

One of my 2017 goals is to learn a new way to contribute to iNat. I don't know if this venture will achieve that aim, but I would like to try.

I do iNaturalist entirely for fun, but I'm an ecologist by training and work in wildlife conservation, so my orientation is to think about when and where species occur, and how that information could be applied or converted into useful metrics. I'm weird that way! Here's some wonky questions that I think about:

-- How could you calculate the probability that an iNat observation will be recorded for a particular species during a visit to a particular place? During a particular month?
-- What predictive value might an observation probability have? How could you define predictive value?
-- How might the predictive value differ along a gradient of common to rarely observed species? Along a gradient of frequently to rarely visited places?
-- What is the minimum number of iNat observations necessary to calculate a probability with sufficient predictive value? The minimum number of iNat users?
-- How does species presence relate to species detection relate to species iNat observation?
-- How does the profile of an individual iNat user's activity change the observation probability? What are some of the reasons why an iNat user might detect a species but not make an iNat observation?
-- How could you calculate the probability of an iNat observation in a place where a species has not been observed yet?
-- How could existing range maps improve the calculation of species probabilities? Maps of habitat, ecosystem, and other bio-physical and human footprint features?
-- How could you generate a range map based on iNat observations and observation probabilities?
-- How could you use probability of species observations to incentivize iNat users to go outside? To incentivize visits to particular places? To look for particular species at particular times?
-- So what? Outside of iNat, how might this information actually be used by people interested in nature, science, philanthropy, and conservation?

If history is any guide, Scott @loarie or someone else will gently tell me that this feature is already under development, or some other group or entire discipline of scientists is already pursuing these questions. And at least in the latter case, that's absolutely correct! There is a LOT of literature and experts on species detection probabilities, species distribution models, and using Bayesian probability statistics to map where species occur. (Experts that include our very own Scott and probably several others on here!) So, acknowledging up front that I'm out of my depth and at high risk of looking foolish, I am putting my belief out there for your scrutiny that pursuing these questions in the context of iNaturalist would add substantial value to existing iNat activity and has the potential to make a novel contribution.

So, is anyone else curious about this stuff?

[images: Southern Leopard Frog (Lithobates sphenocephalus) and Rabid Wolf Spider (Rabidosa rabida) observed in McKinney Roughs Nature Park, TX; Locust Borer Beetle (Megacyllene robiniae) in Sky Meadows State Park, VA]